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SAFE Ark Two Newsletter
March 31st, 2013
Not An April Fool's Joke
Lots of news this week about North Korea and such but I am going to focus one subject. Cyprus on Easter
The lead says "Big depositors at Cyprus' largest bank may be forced to accept losses of up to 60 percent"
But - the numbers in the text add up to 100%
Deposits of more than 100,000 euros ($128,000) at the Bank of Cyprus
will lose 37.5 percent in money that will be converted into bank shares,
according to a central bank statement. In a second raid on these
accounts, depositors also could lose up to 22.5 percent more, depending
on what experts determine is needed to prop up the bank's reserves. The
experts will have 90 days to figure that out.
The remaining 40 percent of big deposits at the Bank of Cyprus will be
"temporarily frozen for liquidity reasons," but continue to accrue
existing levels of interest plus another 10 percent, the central bank
said.
[So - 37.5 percent plus 22.5 percent more adds up to 60% plus the
remaining 40 percent of big deposits adds up to 100% even if they say it
is your money but you just can't have it. - Bruce]
You can also see the Cyprus story here.
The BIG news for Canadians, although I have not found anywhere else that you can read it, is in
The Canadian 2013 Budget
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The Canadian federal budget for fiscal year 2013–2014 was presented to
the Canadian House of Commons by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on 21
March 2013. It was entitled JOBS GROWTH AND LONG-TERM PROSPERITY.
On page 29 it talks about the 'successful' renegotiation of the Greek
bailout plan and on page 144 under Supporting Jobs and Growth
Helping Manufacturers and Businesses Succeed in the Global Economy it
discusses how the same plan may be applied to Canada.
Establishing a Risk Management Framework for Domestic Systemically Important Banks
Economic Action Plan 2013 will implement a comprehensive risk management framework for Canada’s systemically important banks.
[The term 'systemically important' is bureaucratese for 'too big to
fail' and that term itself is used in the last sentence of the section.
The new catch term is also 'bail-in' rather than 'bailout'. Changing the
terms makes it all okay. -Bruce]
Canada’s large banks are a source of strength for the Canadian economy.
Our large banks have become increasingly successful in international
markets, creating jobs at home [Love all the new jobs. - Bruce]. The
Government also recognizes the need to manage the risks associated
with systemically important banks — those banks whose distress or
failure could cause a disruption to the financial system and, in turn,
negative impacts on the economy. This requires strong prudential
oversight and a robust set of options for resolving these institutions
without the use of taxpayer funds, in the unlikely event [Yeah -
unlikely event - you can believe that - Bruce] that
one becomes non-viable.
The Government intends to implement a comprehensive risk management
framework for Canada’s systemically important banks.
This framework will be consistent with reforms in other countries [like
Cyprus and New Zealand - Bruce] and key international standards, such as
the Financial Stability Board’s Key Attributes of Effective Resolution
Regimes for Financial Institutions, and will work alongside the existing
Canadian regulatory capital regime.
The risk management framework will include the
following elements: Systemically important banks will face a higher capital requirement, as
determined by the Superintendent of Financial Institution.
p. 145 of the Budget (page 155 of the pdf)
The Government proposes to implement a 'bail
-in' regime for systemically important banks. This regime will be
designed to ensure that, in the unlikely (sic) event that a systemically
important
bank depletes its capital, the bank can be recapitalized and returned to
viability through the very rapid conversion of CERTAIN BANK LIABILITIES [Emphasis mine - Bruce] into regulatory capital.
[The bank liabilities are money that it owes to its depositors - in
other words the depositors savings and checking accounts - just like in
Cyrus and New Zealand - Bruce]
This will reduce risks for taxpayers. The Government will consult
stakeholders on how best to implement a bail-in regime in Canada.
Implementation timelines will allow for a smooth transition for affected
institutions, investors and other market participants.
[Although maybe not so smooth for bank depositors - Bruce]
Systemically important banks will continue to be subject to existing
risk management requirements,
including enhanced supervision and recovery and resolution plans. This
risk management framework will limit the unfair advantage that could
be gained by Canada’s systemically important banks through the mistaken
belief by investors and other market participants that these
institutions are
-- too big to fail.
Meanwhile - in the UK
Bank of England - 10 December 2012
(numbered paragraphs in the above document)
3
across all jurisdictions in which the firm operates. To be successful, such an approach will
require close cooperation between home and foreign authorities.
12
Under the strategies currently being developed by the U.S. and the U.K.,
the resolution authority could intervene at the top of the group.
Culpable senior management of the parent and operating businesses would
be removed, and losses would be apportioned to shareholders and
unsecured creditors.
[Unsecured creditors is the buzz word for bank depositors, in other words your bank account. - Bruce]
In all likelihood, shareholders would lose all value and unsecured
creditors should thus expect that their claims would be written down to
reflect any losses that shareholders did not cover. Under both the U.S.
and U.K. approaches, legal safeguards ensure that creditors recover no
less than they would under insolvency. [Meaning - NOTHING -Bruce]
[While the Bank of England document says that this in the also the US
approach, I have not been able to locate any official US Government
document that says that it is, so US depositors can be assurred that
their money is safe (sarcasm off). - Bruce]
13
An efficient path for returning the sound operations of the G-SIFI to the private sector
would be provided by exchanging or converting a sufficient amount of the unsecured debt
[You do surely understand by now that the phrase 'unsecured debt' is code word for saying your bank deposit. - Bruce]
from the original creditors of the failed company into equity. In the
U.S., the new equity would become capital in one or more newly formed
operating entities. In the U.K., the same approach could be used, or the
equity could be used to recapitalize the failing financial company
itself — thus, the
highest layer of surviving bailed-in creditors would become the owners
of the resolved firm.
In either country, the new equity holders would take on the
corresponding risk of being -shareholders in a financial institution.
Throughout, subsidiaries (domestic and foreign) carrying out critical
activities would be kept open and operating, thereby limiting contagion
effects. Such a resolution strategy would ensure market discipline and
maintain financial stability without cost to taxpayers.
[I cannot explain how the Bank of England document can so thoroughly
explain about the US policy when I can not find a US source that does. -
Bruce]
International Financial World War Three
The intrigues that I am reading and hearing about between the US /
Russia / China and others in this
International Financial 'cold' World War Three are astounding to me but I
won't go into them. In my opinion - these are just the types of things
that eventually lead to a 'hot' war.
Readers Comment
In the latest newsletter you wrote under Radiation Questions "As the man
says, "all of the above is above my pay grade", so perhaps better on to
something that I understand a bit more about.
I nearly wrote this email a week ago when you referred to readership
resignations, but your statement in this newsletter made it a bit
easier. I wholeheartedly recommend you do just what you said,
concentrate on something that you understand a bit more about. Remove
the stuff you don't understand and shorten your newsletter considerably
rather than increasing the detail.
I am still a subscriber but I skim read the newsletter now as I inform
myself about many of the things you write about from other, more
knowledgeable and thorough sources, the gold story being an example
which is very old news to me. I don't really need an uninformed weekly
digest about this stuff. I look to your newsletter for information about
that which you fear the most - nuclear war, the likelihood of same and
precautions and actions I can take to protect myself in the event of
such a catastrophe; and yet I hardly ever see is information on this.
I feel that if you want to serve the best interests of the subscribers
that remain and, perhaps encourage previous subscribers to return, the
perhaps your newsletter should provide something along the lines of a
cohesively reasoned series of articles joining up the dots that you see
leading us to war. Maybe a red-orange-green warning level as things warm
up and hopefully, cool down around the world. Other aspects could be
those that arise from fallout and the topic about protecting the thyroid
is a good example. Permanent links to good sources of information about
this is always helpful. I'm sure that if you did this it would generate
more questions on that topic in a positive feedback loop that would
make your work more meaningful to those that still subscribe.
By all means provide a list of click through links if you absolutely
must but spare the commentary because if it isn't informed it isn't
worth writing it, and certainly not worth reading (hence the
resignations I suspect). It would, I'm sure, make your job and life a
lot easier by giving you more time to complete the various aspects of
your Ark Two project. It would also bring the newsletter back onto the
focus of surviving a nuclear war.
Kind regards
Brian
Bruce's Reply-
Well, Brian, as you can see by today's newsletter - I am incorrigible.
It may be that some reader's follow all these details in more depth than
I do - but I suspect that there are many more who do not.
I do not find the discussion in the general press and when I mention
these things to people that I meet casually they appear totally unaware
and disinterested.
On the other hand - there are others who agree with you. I received one
lengthy email this week blasting the fact that I write from Canada and
saying my letter is not suitable for Americans because the things that I
write about are not from an American perspective. Strange - because
people in Canada complain that I am not a Canadian citizen. So- I please
no one.
This week at Ark Two was an exciting and enjoyable week. The weather
finally broke and we had the first couple of days of real Spring. In
another week the temperature is supposed to go permanently above
freezing and the temperature combined with rain should take away the
snow and again allow us access to Ark Two.
We had a delghtful dog Easter Egg Hunt on Good Friday and the couple of
inches of snow on the ground kept everyone from getting muddy. The next
day we attended the regional robotic tournament where Adam's group was
competing. Delightful story but I won't include it.
Grandson came to move the wheat, cut firewood, and water the batteries.
Earlier in the week I worried the worms, and Fred is talking about
coming today to finish the firewood, so I am hoping to get on to new
tasks next week.
Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org
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