The Way without Reversal

The Way without Reversal

If hell exists, it will be computerized

For a long time, I resisted the computerization. When I already had a computer, I had to get myself a printer. A modem had to be installed on the computer. The fax was on the verge of a sort of forced and incidentally incurred. That's exactly the way that there is no turning back. Beginnings are harmless and seem to bring us only new comfort. The sequel may not be an entry into hell, but it's certainly computerized as soon as hell exists.

The latest computer is aging so fast that after a few years it's just junk. Generations of new computers push the previously built and praised into an uncertain abyss: Americans who are in love with statistics claim computer life is short. His life lasts between three and five years. The population of these devices, which no one had even thought about half a century ago, today counts hundreds of millions worldwide.

Of course, one wonders what happens to the millions of outdated computers? They die? Do you have your own cemeteries? Or do you end up on the dumps? Where can you find their bodies? There are hardly any camps for deceased computers as a junk room. I have to admit that in my cellar there is an Apple computer packed in 1984, which I bought for my son when he attended American International School in Vienna. In his time he was powerful, but I do not dare to confess what kind of performance and storage capacity he had. At least he succeeded: nobody threw him away somewhere. It may not have been many years, but it is about the same as the current generation of average computers, like a satellite to a morse code transmitter.

However, I would like to repeat the question of what happens to computers displaced by newer generations. I hear from the American press that they are stacked as fate wants it: in the camps, cellars, in the attics ... But they are not cannibalized. They are outdated. The heart of the computer is the hard drive, its perfusion or perhaps the innervation is represented by the processors. The equation of these centers with the human or animal brain is a significant exaggeration.

Here, my thought suddenly and unexpectedly makes a turn for me. Everyone knows that a willful poisoning or contagion of a thinking system, such as the brain, is punishable. On the other hand, you can infect a computer, and this can be done insidiously with viruses, without having to be afraid of the court or even of the jail, unless it is an act that is considered an offense or offense against significant public Values ​​apply, as is the case for every bank and every general staff in their fortified seats. Tracing the hackers who are capable of damaging the computer's memory by deliberate action from one terrestrial hemisphere on the other employs the special investigative services only exceptionally. At present, cipher art is spreading and evolving significantly, the art of delegitimizing the information sent to someone else by someone else, not just as a branch of cryptography, but rather as a veritable baobab grown from it. While some are trying to program antivirus filters and locks, others are trying to track down any virus spreaders, especially on the routes over which financially important information travels.

If you look at the global nature of this struggle, it turns out that we are dealing with a process that is slipping away from the power and will of its original creators. Their first intention was to create a communication network that had no center at all, so that an enemy, possibly nuclear attack could not paralyze such an organized communication link as a whole. The way of thinking that gave rise to this decentralization, which at first was the origin of the internet and other networks, is due to the strategy of the Cold War. I am convinced that none and none of the developers of this project has come up with the idea that they unconsciously play the role of sorcerer's apprentices who awaken powers that can no longer be mastered.

The nets have grown all over their heads. The networks have not spread any content relevant to military and political issues, but sexual and perverse ones. For sure, no one in the epoch of ENIAC thought that the pedophile pandemic was possible, which cannot be trampled on or extinguished like a constantly stifled, reoccurring conflagration. The point is that effective and effective censorship of all content worldwide would mean destroying the web. It has now penetrated into military, economic, political, and moral subjects, and has been linked to millions of private affairs. A successful expulsion of pornographic iconography from the net, which focuses on everything that even taboos the most permissive culture, is, to be honest, just an unrealizable dream.

The human coronary arteries have a network of additional, over time decreasing connections, caused by the inevitable aging of the vessel walls, which ultimately leads to heart attacks. Infarcts in the electronic network can also happen, but they happen simply as a result of the IT-related congestion. Therefore, the networks need more, not yet blocked by the news excess connections. In this way arise over the old newer levels of the network. So something of the kind of specialization comes to the fore when banks communicate with banks, universities with universities, television stations with other stations, and so on. At the same time, the address abbreviations of the individual internauts must always be longer. Frightening, how long the addresses will turn out when the network has to render the all-round communication of billions of senders and receivers.

At present, the growth, fight, and competition processes are in full swing. I dare not predict if the Net in 100 years will not be our main enemy and maybe our killer, as the global motorization. It is well known that people agree with what they feel like or what they consider necessary. More Americans died in traffic accidents in the US than during the Vietnam War. The death of the soldier, however, aroused despair and disgust, while the victims of traffic accidents are mourned by no one but the families. This comparison may seem pathetic, but it is nothing more than a summary of facts that have set the world in motion and accelerated, and that are heading in an uncertain direction with us. Of course, it is easiest to cover the matter with a new name: the twenty-first century will be a century of computer science. However, this name does not explain anything. We do not know if the electronic Juggernaut will prove to be a technology-built tree of knowledge that the Bible told us in a non-technological way.

Misery out of Abundance

Misery out of Abundance

Is the computer boom coming to an end?

In the past, devices such as locomotives, cars, sewing machines or refrigerators were designed to be operated and even repaired by normal home improvement. In the course of the escalating computer mania, things like the simple linkage that connects the gas pedals to the carburetor throttle are replaced by a computer link. And we've had so many solemn praises about computers and their wondrous abilities about us that it's high time for a tangible complaint.

Even the best and most expensive computers have glitches. Where information processing decides about life and death, in American space shuttles, for example, all onboard electronics are never controlled by a supercomputer but by at least four or five independent units. There is a dull stubbornness inherent in the phenomenon of a computer crash, a stubbornness compared to what seems like the stubbornness of a donkey of near Einstein's wisdom. The stubborn reluctance to execute certain commands, and recurrent functional delays everyone knows, who are familiar with the normal computer everyday life.

When publishers were still settling accounts with their authors - who often did not even have a mechanical calculating machine with a crank - the money was usually faster than it is today, even though the supposedly ultra-fast electronic systems should actually accelerate the process. In the end, it is always a solid literary agent that detects bugs in the publisher's accounts. Because computers have reached inaccuracy after - almost everywhere - prevailing opinion, all derailments are always charged to people sitting at the computer.

John von Neumann called the human brain a system made up of uncertain factors. I do not know where to look for the weaknesses in computers and should. However, I know that the need to keep functions as problem-free as possible has triggered a veritable computer mania in a wide variety of areas. Like women or, more correctly, people are not thoroughly bad, because everyone has their advantages, so it is also with computers: you can expect a lot from them, count on some and get a good deal. But just as it would be futile to expect only divine virtues from the wife of Caesar, one hundred percent confidence in the infallibility and reliability of computers has fatal consequences.

There are so many computer programs that it's getting harder and harder to choose the program that's best for a particular task. As is well known, we have various data networks with many nodes, and we have browsers for surfing the net; However, the most important thing is to know how to quickly find what you need in the information thickets that are hidden microscopically on the hard drives. For the less experienced in particular, these searches are sometimes like walking through a giant labyrinth - and then we remember wistfully how easy it was to get the information you were looking for from a book encyclopedia.

In addition to the computers that are currently on the market or are announced with great enthusiasm by large companies soon simple parallel computers and even quantum computers are available. At the moment, the height of daydreaming is a liquid computer presented on a model that represents a glass of coffee - it can also be milked. Numerical tasks or simulation tasks are to be solved by means of an electric control field and by molecules in a magnetic field applied to the glass of coffee from outside.

By no means do I claim that this belongs in the realm of fairy tales. In many areas of life, what our fathers thought was unbelievable came true. However, building a multi-storey building from ordinary playing cards is a simple task compared to building a computer of atomic spin - because atoms or electrons behave reasonably well in the area of ​​absolute zero, that is, where the Bose-Einstein statistic applies. At room temperature, on the other hand, one can only dream of a quantum computer, since at this temperature all configurations of the subatomic states are extremely unstable.

However, I will no longer be nagging at the grandiose pageant of the latest computergenic ideas that are supposed to transform atomic chaos into perfect order. Without naming names, I'm just reiterating the view of experts predicting that the computer boom, which has grown exponentially in recent years, seems to be nearing its limit and thus its end.

We have screens that are flat like a picture on the wall, and we already think a computer mouse is a rather old-fashioned device. The connection of televisions, monitors, computers, modems and fax machines to uniform pseudo-organisms is getting closer. We have devices for right and left-handed people. So it seems as if, at the end of our century, we would endeavor to complete everything in the vast space of information that was left over to construction.

Of course, although specialists have failed the wisdom teeth on the two zeros of the Y2T, this twilight did not mean an end of information technology. It's different, in other words, it's not as bad as I said. We got lost in the traps of the operating systems because they do not understand us or ourselves. Ultimately, it shows that the mind, as the system that works with concepts, can not be completely replaced at the moment. So I bet on the main prize, on what is the hardest to win, though I do not know when it will be ours. We have to go the path that leads our alienated minds back to the mind, no matter how far that way. Even if we risk countless slip-ups and mistakes, there will be no other way in the near future.

Because the future is always different from what we imagine it to be, what I write is shaped by a subjective conviction, which, however, is quite strong. I do not claim nevertheless that I know the future as accurately as the contents of my drawer.

Digitalitis

Digitalitis

Is it possible to be happy without a computer?

In a nutshell, but with some malice, one could say that nowadays communication is everything and mind is nothing. Various network specialists delight in the enumeration of the number of bits and their transmission speed on a global scale. As is usually the case with major technological innovations, everything seems to be sunny first, but then spots appear on that Sun.

I confess that I have computerized under the pressure of more convincing facts and tendencies and have bought myself a fax and a modem. I also own a mailbox somewhere for electronic mail. It's just that electronic communications are gaining in importance because they are much cheaper than telephones, especially for long-distance connections.

The number of journals devoted to the digital era at whose threshold we are supposedly located is growing. Maybe you should start with the spots on this new sun. All types of counterfeiting, collusion, fraud, speculation, and intrusion into the most thoroughly and expertly controlled databases find very comfortable beds and hiding places on the Internet because it is easier than anywhere else to preserve the anonymity of the sender. Of course, also stupidities and nonsense can spread thanks to the Internet in a flash.

In Poland, we are only at the beginning of all these crossroads, mainly because network communication, like any other electronic communication, depends to a large extent on the reliable availability of the country's infrastructure. I still remember my arrival in Moscow at midnight at the time when Andrei Tarkovsky started filming my novel Solaris. In the supposedly first-class hotel, we went to, you could only order vodka, wholewheat bread, and black caviar as a meal. It seemed to me then that all standards of nutrition in hotel restaurants were turned upside down.

Attempts to introduce some form of censorship online are being pursued in many states with questionable, if not almost futile, successes. It is safe to protect yourself from the invasion of content, images, and texts of any intensity of pernicious immorality, but it is very difficult because the basic principle in building the networks was and remains their lack of center. Thus, the network was to become insensitive to information technology shocks, which of course was not about saving from pornography, but espionage and military attacks. This puts us in the position of a sorcerer's apprentice who unleashed powers that he is no longer able to master.

As is the case with any universally accessible innovation, breaking into the depths of the nets can plunge the user into a manic dependency - and that actually happens. Without leaving the chair in front of the computer, you can lose a fortune in a virtual casino or even on the stock market. Reality is set up so that inverse effects, ie to acquire assets in an aforementioned way, are less likely. There is a lot of talk about less dangerous sides of digital mania, for example, the renaissance of the writing culture is underlined thanks to electronic mail (email). In fact, many letters are written, and they can literally be sent in all directions at lightning speed, which, however, does not make the contents of these letters a whitewash of letters scribbled on bad paper.

The absence of computer minds and even more the nets is compensated by stored data enabling movement in the chosen direction within the mazes of the nets: for a "digital human" there are approximately 1017 bits accumulated by mankind , According to American fragmentary data, a lady who lacked funds to finance her children's study earns eighty thousand dollars a month. The golden rain that the Internet brought her was simply due to sex. Her database, which revolves around the mentioned topic, contains more than fifteen hundred pornographic offers. Newspapers claim that users of both this offer of contact and the supply of images bring her one million dollars a year.

It is not so much about sex. The major publishers such as Bertelsmann are eager to transfer their copyrights into digital space. This room has already created about thirty new occupations and it is underlined that the best users or operators are minors, ie children. If these children at least corresponded with each other, that would not be the worst, because American research has shown that the little ones, who have been spending a lot of time in front of the television since their early years, have a high degree of deficiency in their mother tongue. These are the passive victims of their brains constantly bombarding image information delivered by the TV. So, linking the networks to education, especially those that activate thinking, is desirable.

There were also various virtual creatures (phantoms) to light, such as the existing exclusively in the computer virtual animals. On the other hand, I do not mention the fears created by the temptation offered by countless single and multi-person games, because many books have already been devoted to the danger of the new mania.

From the network, the user can now derive great benefits similar to the computer. I think of sophisticated programs that can mimic intelligence as well as understanding what one says or write about these programs, and that perhaps even one of these programs could succeed in the Turing test. When talking about such achievements, it is all about the so-called good framework contingency, within which one can seem to move freely. Allow me to explain the matter with a simplified example.

Anyone starting a journey from a large train station has a huge jumble of converging and diverging tracks, switches, and turntables. Usually, this is so many that it seems to someone who is naive, such as a child, that in view of the variations made by the number of omnidirectional tracks, he can go in any direction whatsoever. Of course, it is not so, no matter how many ways are opened by the number of tracks. However, if somebody wants to know how and when he can travel from Bonston to Paris at the lowest price - here I am leaving the example - it has been made by the computer, also with a synthetic human voice and at the same time with images on the monitor or as an expression , possible to represent all optimal variants of travel connections.

The person asking for advice is not always aware that, in fact, no one had answered him, he is often inclined to answer: I thank you for the detailed information. It makes as much sense as thanking a chair for not collapsing under the weight of our body. There are already programs that recognize the voice and the language and adapt to individual characteristics of pronunciation. The error rate is getting smaller. There are still many potential possibilities, and perhaps the connections of connections, that is, large constellations of modules that lexical data and their syntactical compilations will lead to the imitation of understanding, which one can hardly distinguish from a real understanding by a layman. In this way, a kind of gray misty zone emerges, behind which a ray of intelligence based on thought begins to shine. However, what covers the surrogates of comprehension, as it seems, still does not encompass the authentic capacity of the human intellect. You could say that in the net or computer, even with the best linguistic program, we are still in a perfect wax museum that has a fairly large behavioral autonomy. So, in the end, the process of reviving Galatea could eventually succeed. However, we are currently a long way from this culmination of the specialists' general efforts.

It is inevitable that Internet opponents come to the fore, who are not necessarily and not always simply regressive. Surely you can be happy without a computer. The best proof is that I wrote a few dozen books on a simple mechanical typewriter without any electronics.

The English dramatist John Osborne said: "The computer represents a logical extension of human development: intelligence without morality". It is true that computers do not know anything about morality because they do not understand anything and therefore can not be placed under moral principles. Let's end with the words of Brigitte Bardot, who said, "Computers are unattractive that they can only say yes or no, but they can not 'maybe' say."Time, however, continues inexorably, and the moment when Mrs. Bardot's words had the aftertaste of a prudent aphorism has already passed. Computers that have operating programs based on probabilistic accounting already exist, but a computer that provides its user with only probabilistic statements will hardly make anyone happy.

The Guardianship of the Computer

The guardianship of the computer

The first steps in the development of an "ethicosphere" have already been made

Before I begin with the matter to which I would like to dedicate this essay, I would like to point out in retrospect that I have sometimes succeeded, including in the works of "fantastic" science fiction, future inventions and discoveries, or their future influence on the earthly Foreseeing civilization, but I have sometimes, as I will show the example of the "ethicosphere", also erred and hit like a shooter, but not exactly the black, but just next to it. The phantasmagoria portrayed as narratives and fables should not normally be literary prophecies. I have not sought to unveil any "true" future, but merely to try to imagine what civilization, which reaches a higher level of development, can do, so that it does not freeze and destroy itself.

Whatever I could think of, it was the result of a search for possible solutions in the technical field, and it was very important to me that I could understand their feasibility myself. Even if at the moment they should appear like a fairytale overcoming of society-threatening conflicts that can be defeated with traditional methods as well as how the police together with the military can stop a volcanic eruption or an earthquake and render it harmless.

Part of the great global dangers is known to be actively caused by technological civilization. For example, chemical fumes heat the climate, resulting in the melting of glaciers and dangerous changes in large areas of the atmosphere. It is also known that there are plans against the harmful technologies that are to be combated by "rescue technologies". However, since the cost of the latter would burden the owners of the former, no one is in any great hurry to implement such saving stabilization measures.

I did not think that big deeds entail big costs but wrongly underestimated this obvious link between investment in innovation and capital investment.

I suppose that humanity would not be indifferent to those processes which threaten its existence. Since someone hungry and eating an apple-roasted duck does not swallow either fork or knife, I thought the same would apply to the largest global scale. However, if my duck consumption is indirectly related to my neighbor having to swallow knives or, less metaphorically, knowing that the agony of geese in rearing does not spoil the appetite for goose liver soaked by a painful fattening, then the matter may uncomfortably complicated. The rule: "What you do not want to be done to you, that does not add to any other", is then no longer true.

However, that was just a side note as I wanted to show how I came up with a technological project beneficial to society and how it began to materialize in our own time. I just add that the Chinese - like children who fly kites - had no idea of ​​the air pressure acting on the kite during gliding and also allowed intercontinental flights of several hundred passengers. Sometimes theory advances practice - especially a game practice - and sometimes theory, as in the case of the hydrogen bomb.

In the novel "Der Lokaltermin", which I started writing in 1970 and published in 1982, you can find the following section:

"Any community that appropriates the forces of nature is beset by dramatic shocks, the desired wealth brings with it undesirable consequences, violence and coercion acquire new forms and reinforcements in the new techniques, and the following relationship seems to arise: the greater the power over the Nature becomes, the greater the social degeneration - and indeed it is so - to a certain limit, which results even from the order of discoveries, that is, from the fact that it is simpler, from nature, its destructive power than its friendly (...) The potential for destruction is becoming a value that can be acquired - this is a new historic threat ... "

The fictitious heroes of my book, the Entians, have begun to use their planet to use nanotechnology to enhance the environment to become their perfectly safe protector.

"With us," says a learned Entian, "there has been a synthesis of the new solids and the new forms of their surveillance, the two pillars of our civilization, we call their union the ethicosphere."

It's about the "molecules of good," that is, "intelligent molecules" that work in such a way that no one could do anything to his neighbor that would be uncomfortable to him, such as driving someone down the street, hitting someone, but killing himself, crushing his vehicle on a concrete pillar, etc. But let's let the Entian continue:

"The saving change is the creation of a system of knowledge that is accessible in its entirety - but not for living beings, since none of them would be able to carry this immense size." (I would add that this is the vision of an Internet containing all the information.) "None of the speckles (the" intelligent molecules ") are single, taken in isolation, universal, but taken altogether are universal. (Protective, SL) Universalism is accessible to everyone, if necessary, these powers can be invoked at any time like a jinn in a fairy tale, but no one can do it directly, because that can only provide 'intelligent molecules' do not use this invisible colossus against another ... "

The "intelligent molecules" are in the book, so to speak, a kind of extension of the universal laws of nature. You can not gain energy out of nothing and you can not exceed the speed of light. The "ethicosphere", on the other hand, means that you can not torment, murder and detain your fellow man against his will. You can not do that to any people on the planet. The "intelligent molecules" even try to resist the forces of nature, eg during a flood. The novel portrays many attempts to outwit "the intelligent molecules" so that they can be abducted, killed or terrorized. But enough here now about "Lokaltermin". If someone wants to know more about the ethics' action methodology, he should use the book himself.

Of course, there is no ethicosphere under the rule of Bill Gates and his empire (Microsoft). These narratives are pure fantasy. But approaches can already be found today. The first flight across the English Channel was ended with a landing in the water, but not quite a hundred years later, the globe could be turned around in one fell swoop. Although the ethicosphere itself hides dangers that are difficult to eliminate completely, the first examples of such "rescue technologies," the first pioneers of the "ethicosphere" and the "intelligently refined environment," appear on the scene. In what shape?

In real shape, for example, as placed on the edges of the highway, computer-controlled systems that send oncoming cars signals that are invisible to the driver and unnoticeable by small onboard computers in the car (which would be just as obligatory as the brake system would be) received, so no vehicle to exceed the speed set for that section of the road. Lawning and overtaking would be impossible, and if an unseen commandment commanded to drive at walking pace, the car would obey, even if the driver ate the steering wheel. Police and emergency vehicles would, of course, be exempt.

There are already devices that determine whether the driver is sober or if he has alcohol in his blood, but the equipment of the vehicles is not compulsory for manufacturers. Similarly, thermal sensors operate in buildings that set fire sprinklers in motion when it becomes alarmingly hot due to the outbreak of a fire. It has also come up with sensors that monitor whether the driver is not drowsy. With the control to observe the eyelids, a corresponding mini computer is busy, which steers the car with the dormant driver on the edge strip and stops. There are many types of immobilizers, but anyone can know how to develop a method, as thieves and experts know. In Saudi Arabia, there has been a heightened level of theft by radically separating the thieves from one hand, which has allegedly helped. I emphasize that I do not advise, but only want to notice that an audible alarm in the car can yell until the battery is empty. A car can be towed backward in a blockage of the transmission stick.

If such passive methods of car protection turn out to be in vain, then active protection arises - single examples for it can be found also in my "Lokaltermin". For example, if a stranger tries to start the car, it can be filled with a milky, opaque smoke. A phone booth will give the one who tries to rob them a neat one on the pear. Incidentally, I do not intend to multiply these actions here, because then it would be about "molecules of beating," that is, "libel," not "intelligent molecules," atoms of ethics that prolong the continuity of the laws of nature.

Similar protections are now proliferating since the network communications of banks, brokers, stock exchanges, corporations, or corporations have devoured billions in investment, and it has since become clear that an Anglo-Saxon rascal "playing" with millions of dollars across continents is destroying an entire consortium can drive. Here you would need programs that work on the well-known Lenin principle: "Trust is good, but control is better." Of course, the software would have to be secure, and in our vale of misery and scandals, it would quickly turn out that we would then enter into a regressus ad infinitum of ever higher control systems. Incidentally, I was by no means only positive sides of the environment improving "Ethikosphäre" demonstrated in the "Lokaltermin". It also has to bring significant negative innovations. If there were no safes, there would be no safe corkers. Even a small child understands that.

I had a comrade in my Lviv grammar school, an athletically trained repetitee, who benefited from our breakfast by always grabbing the best, like the ham or the fruit. So I took a big red apple that I extracted from my father's syringe as far as I could and replaced it with a solution of kitchen soap. During the break, I could watch as the schoolmate flushed foam from his mouth under the tap. Obviously, the idea of ​​protecting food from such attacks already tormented me at that time. I mention this not only as a mere gimmick, as it comes in addition to abductions or death threats to kidnappers, for example in Germany more often attempts to blackmail millions under threat of poisoning of foods (mayonnaise, spices, juices, etc.) in supermarkets. Tiny little objects that cause a loud alarm when someone tries to carry some garment out of the store have been in use for many years, but even counting these alarming elements as "pre-intelligent molecules" is problematic.

There are now chains in use that can not be removed by a convict. The place where he is right now is always visible on the police computer. The human technoethical ingenuity must struggle with human meanness because otherwise there is no solution. Nevertheless, one can already observe today the first approaches, the individual "feelers" of the world under surveillance, supervision, and care of a plethora of computers. At the moment, there is no "computer-craze", that is, a government-machine machine (machine à gouverner) that the Dominican Father Dubarle had derived from Viennese cybernetics as a possibility in 1948 in "Le Monde". Also, there is not yet the Nanobots (Nanoknirpse of Drexler), who are dedicated to the employment of doing good things everywhere.

But let's wait. Intel is already working on the production of chip prototypes that are 100 times smaller than the smallest today and have a bit capacity that is 1,000 times greater. The computing power should be subject to a sudden increase, which would make Deep Blue something of a scooter compared to a Formula 1 car. In addition, the power of Bill Gates has already been endangered by some consortia. The point is, Gates wanted about 40% of the US-equipped households and companies connected to the network using modems to go without their computers. They represent the most expensive part needed to surf the net. Everyone would just have a keyboard and a modem with them. He would have access to computers and operating programs on the network.

The idea is this: not everyone has their own power plant, as it is enough to have a connection to the mains. I have my own small power plant, ie a generator in the garden because the Krakow power plant is rather unreliable. And if you have a lot of devices that are powered by electrical energy, a power-generating device is necessary. For me, the reason is that many overseas television crews come to my house to do interviews, and sometimes the electricity is suddenly "gone." So on this principle, Bill Gates wanted to cheapen the use of the network. However, it was countered with an even cheaper in the implementation idea. After Bill is still a monitor required, but his competitors said: Not necessarily! More than 60% of households in the US have televisions that turn their screens into Internet monitors, and instead of a keyboard, a small console with just a few buttons is enough.The TV screen shows links for programs (banks, travel agencies, etc.) and the user will click on what he needs with a cheap mouse. You would probably need to buy a modem or just borrow it. The difference in costs would amount to a few hundred dollars. These battles in the electronic services market, however, leave me cold: I know that my computer will soon be outdated, because the innovative trend is so fast at the moment. In any case, I think that you can already follow the sprouts of the ethicosphere.

Why do I dare to introduce the external speed limiters (which are the administrative imperatives of road traffic engineering), the weapons smuggling "defeaters" (security entrances) at airports or the "driving inhibitors" of the drunk drivers as the groundbreaking beginnings of the "ethicosphere"?Because we are surrounded by more and more devices that monitor us and that reduce personal freedom and thus the extent of individual responsibility for our actions. We are slowly coming under the tutelage of computer systems that seemingly increase our space of freedom, but in reality - supposedly for our benefit - reduce it.

Written in October 1997

Ultraviolet Protection after a Nuclear War

UV Protection after a Nuclear War
by Bruce Beach
Radiological Scientific Officer

---

Table of Contents

 
Foreword
Why there is little information on nuclear UV
The Meaning of Nuclear Winter
Intensified UV
Technical Explanation of UV
Optical Radiation Spectral Bands
Methods for measuring UV

The National Weather Service Method of Measuring UV
Other methods for measuring UV

MEDs (minimum erythemal doses)
Variables affecting UV intensity
Medical Effects of Intensified UV
Agricultural effects of Intensified UV
Beneficial effects of UV
Instruments for measuring UV
Strategies for combating excessive UV

Timing
Clothing
Brimmed Hats
Sunglasses
Squinting
Nutrition
Sun Screens - NOT RECOMMENDED
CONCLUSIONS

---

Foreword

Because I have been asked about this subject several times, and because there will be a need for this information after a nuclear war, and because there does not appear to be anywhere that I can find a document on this subject - I have decided to write up this material myself.
For any who may decry my lack of expertise in this area, I will certainly accept their reservations and only ask that they provide me with a better article for posting. 

 Why there is little information on nuclear UV
 
Between the opposite extremes of Greenhouse Effect and Nuclear Winter many dire threats encircle mankind and many of these threats are not by any means mutually exclusive. While we will not concern ourselves here with the environmentalists' pet concern of Greenhouse Effect and shall confine ourselves to one particular subject associated with Nuclear Winter let us note that the non-availability of survival information is created by two extremes of thought.
One extreme of thought is characterized by the governments and their many bureaucracies that for the most part, for two reasons, sneeringly and condescendedly reject any requests for information.
The first reason is that they hold it ridiculous that anyone would think after all these years without there having been a nuclear war that nuclear weapons would actually be used and that anyone should prepare for that eventuality. The second reason is that they become annoyed that a civilian (in their terminology not meaning someone who is non-military, but rather simply someone who is not representing a government agency) would encroach upon their domain and ask for information. These government attitudes are passing strange in that they are the ones who are supposed to be concerned about the well being of the public and they are ones who spend seemingly endless billions of dollars in building nuclear weapons and the means of their delivery while saying that they will never use them - so that we need not worry about them.
The other extreme of thought holds that use of nuclear weapons will be so disastrous that there is no need to make preparation for survival.

The intuition of the average human being since the first use of these weapons against population centers has been that a nuclear war would cause the extinction of our species. In light of recent studies, it appears that this intuition is much closer to the truth than the enlightened understanding of those who have advocated doctrines of the survivability and therefore fightability of a nuclear war.

[Birks, J. W., J. Staehelin, and S. L. Stephens. 1985.
Changes in tropospheric composition and chemistry
resulting from a nuclear war.]

The rational for this latter doctrine is that the holders of it equate "survivability and therefore fightability" and therefore anyone who advocates 'survivalism' receives also their sneers, and more than that - their downright anger because to them we seem to be advocating nuclear war. While this latter accusation couldn't be further from the truth we still end up with the same result - the academic and technical talent on both sides give us no assistance in making preparation for nuclear survival.


The Meaning of Nuclear Winter

Those of us who were involved in peace activities in the 80's probably remember a good deal about nuclear winter. Those who have become involved later may have heard little about it. No scientific study has been published since 1990, and very little appears now in the peace or nuclear abolition literature. *It is still important.* With thousands of rocket-launched weapons at "launch-on-warning", any day there could be an all-out nuclear war by accident. The fact that there are only half as many nuclear bombs as there were in the 80's makes no significant difference.
Deaths from world-wide starvation after the war would be several times the number from direct effects of the bombs, and the surviving fraction of the human race might then diminish and vanish after a few generations of hunger and disease, in a radioactive environment.
*The concept of Nuclear Winter*
Bombs directed at missile silos would burst at ground level and throw a huge amount of dust into the atmosphere, as the explosion of a volcano does. It is as much as a million tonnes from a large nuclear bomb bursting at ground level.
Bombs bursting over cities and surface installations, like factories or oil stores and refineries, would cause huge fires and fire-storms that would send huge amounts of smoke into the air.
The 1980's research showed that the dust and the smoke would block out a large fraction of the sunlight and the sun's heat from the earth's surface, so it would be dark and cold like an arctic winter. It would take months for the sunlight to get back to near normal.
The cloud of dust and smoke would circle the northern hemisphere quickly. Soon it could affect the tropics, and cold would bring absolute disaster for all crops there. Quite likely it would cross the equator and affect the southern hemisphere to a smaller degree.
While the temperature at the surface would be low, the temperature of the upper part of the troposphere (5-11 km) would rise because of sunlight absorbed by the smoke, so there would be an absolutely massive temperature inversion. That would keep many other products of combustion down at the levels people breathe, making a smog such as has never been seen before. PYROTOXINS is a word coined for all the noxious vapours that would be formed by combustion of the plastics, rubber, petroleum, and other products of civilization. It is certain that these poisons would be formed, but we do not have quantitative estimates. The amount of combustible material is enormous, and it would produce dioxins, furans, PCB's, cyanides, sulphuric and sulphurous acids, oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide in amounts that would make current concerns about atmospheric pollution seem utterly trivial. There would also be toxic chemicals like ammonia and chlorine from damaged storage tanks.
Altogether, nuclear winter would be an ecological disaster of the same sort of magnitude as the major extinctions of species that have occurred in the past, the most famous one being 65 million years ago at the cretaceous extinction. Of all the species living at the time, about half became extinct. The theory is that a large meteor made a great crater in the Gulf of California, putting a trillion tons of rock debris into the atmosphere. That is a thousand times as much rock as is predicted for a nuclear war, but the soot from fires blocks sunlight more effectively than rock debris. In nuclear winter there would also be radioactive contamination giving worldwide background radiation doses many times larger than has ever happened during the 3 billion years of evolution. The radiation would notably worsen things for existing species, though it might, by increasing mutations, allow quicker evolution of new species (perhaps mainly insects and grasses) that could tolerate the post-war conditions.


NUCLEAR WINTER REVISITED
by Dr. Alan Phillips,
October 2000
This nuclear winter effect is the exact opposite of the greenhouse effect which maintains most of the Earth's surface at above-freezing temperatures during the warmer seasons. Nuclear winter would have its greatest impact if the nuclear war occurred during the summer, because the incremental change in the amount of sunlight that would reach and warm the Earth's surface would be greatest then. Furthermore, during summer plants are not in their dormant states and would be most vulnerable to subfreezing temperatures. Of course, it is not possible to predict the season in which a nuclear war might break out.
(In) some of the most sophisticated computer model calculations of the climatic effects of a nuclear war ... temperature perturbations are calculated to be in the tens of degrees Celsius, and in a fully interactive model the atmospheric lifetime of the particulate matter is enhanced so that the duration of nuclear winter would be at least a few months.... (and would result in) the partial destruction of the protective ozone layer, with a consequent increase in the level of biologically damaging ultraviolet radiation that would impinge on the biosphere once the smoke cloud has subsided.


[The Medical Implications of Nuclear War,
Institute of Medicine.
1986
by the National Academy of Sciences.
National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
Possible Toxic Environments Following a Nuclear War
JOHN W. BIRKS, PH.D., and SHERRY L. STEPHENS
University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado]
Dust lofted by the clouds generated by atomic bombs and especially smoke from fires in cities, forests, industries, and oil refineries would darken the sky. A simple calculation, in which one takes the total amount of smoke (about 200 million metric tons) that might be introduced into the atmosphere by the nuclear war fires and distributes it uniformly over the middle half of the Northern Hemisphere, indicates that more than 99 percent of the sunlight would be absorbed by the smoke cloud.

[Crutzen and Birks, 1982;
Turco et al., 1983;
National Research Council [NRC], 1985]

Ninety-nine percent of the sunlight being absorbed would make it rather dark so that we may say that these are literally dark days that are anticipated. Anyway, so much for statements regarding the threat of Nuclear Winter. However, two caveats may be made here from a survivalist's point of view. In the first place we do not know how intense it may or may not be. Some event or intervention may occur to ameliorate the final outcome.

Matthew 24:22
And except those days should be shortened,
there should no flesh be saved:
but for the elect's sake those days shall be shortened.

The other caveat is that because this shall be an unique event we really have no experience to tell us how and it what way other factors may interplay. Consequently, while it may be a severe challenge to agriculture and survival - it may not be an insurmountable one and thought should be given to strategies to combat its effects. That, however, is beyond the scope of the present study and will have to be treated of elsewhere. Here we are concerning ourselves with one particular phenomena that may accompany nuclear winter and that is the intensifying of UV (ultraviolet rays) from the sun. 

Intensified UV

Another bad environmental thing that would happen is destruction of the ozone layer. The reduction in the ozone layer could be 50% - 70% over the whole northern hemisphere - very much worse than the current losses that we are properly concerned about. Nitrogen oxides are major chemical agents for this. They are formed by combination of the oxygen and nitrogen of the air in any big fire and around nuclear explosions, as they are on a smaller scale around lightning flashes. So after the smoke cleared and the sun began to shine again, there would be a large increase of UV reaching the earth's surface. This is bad for people in several ways, but don't worry about the skin cancers ? not many of the survivors would live long enough for that to matter. UV is also bad for many other living things, notably plankton, which are the bottom layer of the whole marine food chain. There would likely be enough UV to cause blindness in many animals. Humans can protect their eyes if they are aware of the danger. Animals do not know to do that, and blind animals do not survive. Blind insects do not pollinate flowers, so there is another reason why human crops and natural food supplies for animals would fail.

[NUCLEAR WINTER REVISITED
by Dr. Alan Phillips, October 2000]

This last quote does not clearly delineate why nuclear war survivors will not live long enough to concern themselves about the effect of UV in causing skin cancer but I thoroughly cover elsewhere my projections of the effects of an all out nuclear war on the world's population and in point of fact I am more pessimistic about the number of casualties than are most other sources who put them at about one billion people, or about 20% of the world's present population, whereas I put them at 80% or four billion of the world's present population. This still leaves 20% long term survivors or one billion people which is more population than the world had in 1800. I shall now turn to one summary source of scientific literature that I do have available and the following quotes, unless otherwise indicated, are from that source - which is:
ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH CRITERIA 160
ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION
An Authoritative Scientific Review of Environmental and Health Effects of UV,
with Reference to Global Ozone Layer Depletion
Published under the joint sponsorship of the United Nations Environment Programme,
the International Labour Organisation,
and the World Health Organization Geneva,
1994 The document itself is very long (hundreds of pages), often very technical, and involves many chapters. It is mainly concerned with two areas of inquiry one being what we have referred to as the Greenhouse effect and the other being industrial uses of UV. The document concerns itself extensively with biological and medical studies. There is, however, little in the document relating directly to nuclear war and its effects.

The sun is the principal source of exposure for most people. Solar UV undergoes significant absorption by the atmosphere. With depletion of the stratospheric ozone people and the environment will be exposed to higher intensities of UV. The consequences of this added UV exposure are considered so serious that it was a major topic for discussion at the World Environment Conference, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.

While the above quote refers to the environmentalists' concern about the Greenhouse effect, speculated as being caused by present human activity, the effects of a nuclear war on UV penetration could be much more substantial.  

Technical Explanation of UV
 
UV is split into three categories or wavelengths:

UVA
UVB
UVC

Collectively they are all-adjacent in the electromagnetic spectrum and are just referred to as UV. It is the longer wavelengths that concern us and when in this article I refer to UV I am really referring mostly to UVA although sometimes UVB will be discussed.

UVC is almost completely absorbed by ozone and oxygen in the atmosphere; even with severe ozone reduction UVC would still be effectively absorbed by the remaining oxygen. UV is one of the non-ionizing radiations in the electromagnetic spectrum and lies within the range of wavelengths 100 nm (which corresponds to a photon energy of approximately 12 eV) to 400 nm. The short wavelength limit of the UV region is often taken as the boundary between the ionizing radiation spectrum (wavelengths < 100 nm) and the non-ionizing radiation spectrum.

Optical Radiation Spectral Bands

Ultraviolet radiation	100 - 400 nm
UVA	315 - 400 nm
UVB	280 - 315 nm
UVC	100 - 280 nm
Visible radiation (light)	400 - 760 nm
Infrared radiation (IR)	760 - 10 / 6 nm = 1 mm

UV of wavelengths less than 180 nm has no direct biological effect on humans since it is effectively absorbed in a few centimetres of air.

Methods for measuring UV 

The National Weather Service method for measuring UV

Q: Why did the National Weather Service, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention develop the UV Index forecast?
A: Since the National Weather Service, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began offering an experimental UV Index on a limited basis on June 28, 1994, the effort has raised the visibility of the risks associated with prolonged exposure to ultraviolet radiation. Providing warnings, advisories and information to protect life and health is one of the prime elements of the mission of the National Weather Service. The NWS, EPA and CDC developed the UV Index in response to the increasing incidence of skin cancer, cataracts, and other effects from exposure to the sun's harmful rays. It is important that the public be educated on the factors that can affect UV radiation so preventive measures can be taken.

A very kind gentleman at:

NOAA/National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Camp Springs, MD 20746

has provided me with the following information:

The conversion from Erythemal Dose rate to UV Index is as follows:

an Erythemal Dose Rate of 25 milliWatts/sq meter equals 1 UV Index unit.
For instruments that output in MEDs the common conversion is this:

1 MED per hour equals 58 milliWatts/sq meter equals 2.3 UV Index units.

If you have questions about health aspects contact the U.S. EPA at 1-800-296-1996. If you have questions about scientific aspects contact the NWS at (301) 713-0622. 
 
Other methods for measuring UV

UV radiation at the earths surface is measured using two methods 1. The first method measures the amount of energy contained in the UV radiation that reaches the Earths surface.
The Department of Geography and Environmental Studies at The University of Tasmania uses this method to measure and record UV information. The method expresses energy using S.I. (Système International) units. In this case milliWatts per square meter (ie each square meter of a horizontal surface receives x milliWatts of energy. The SI symbol is mW m-2 . The graphical display of daily UV shown during TV weather bulletins is based on this data.
2. The second method of measuring UV is based on the response of human skin to UV radiation and is recorded as a Global Solar UV-Index.
This Index was developed as part of a plan to standardise UV radiation reporting around the globe. It is often used as a prediction, as is the case in Tasmania. The UV Index is determined for the one hour when UV radiation intensity is at its peak. This will generally occur at solar noon (approximately 1 pm during daylight saving time). The UV Index directly takes into account cloud cover and other environmental factors. Of course a predicted Index value is only that, a prediction, and must be treated as such.
The measurements of UV radiation have been related to exposure categories based on sun burning times for fair skinned people as follows;
milliWatts per square meter Index value Exposure Category < 60 Les than 3 Moderate 60 - 150 3 - 6 High 151 - 580 6 - 10 Very High > 580 Greater than 10 Extreme
If there is 60 milliWatts of incident UV radiation (UV-Index of 3), a fair skinned person will experience minimal skin redness after one hour in the sun. If there is 151 milliWatts of incident UV radiation (UV-Index of 6) a fair skinned person will experience minimal skin redness after 24 minutes in the sun. If there is 580 milliWatts of incident UV radiation (UV-Index of 10) a fair skinned person will experience minimal skin redness after 6 minutes in the sun. While the extreme Category is a very rare occurrence in Tasmania, UV levels of over 250 milliWatts per square meter are common and will resulting in a fair skinned person burning after 15 minutes in the sun. Remember potential long term health effects from UV radiation do not depend on skin type.

MEDs (minimum erythemal doses)

Of the two useful means of measurement of the intensity of UV described above the second appears most practical for our use and is calibrated in a unit called a MED.

An MED is the radiant exposure of UV that produces a just noticeable erythema on a previously unexposed skin. 200 - 300 J m-2 effective is the value of 1 MED.

Number of MEDs in a 3 h exposure period for a sensitive skin type (1 MED = 200 J m-2 effective) for the erythemally effective UVB irradiances are given in the following as a function of latitude (°) and time of year for the Northern Hemisphere (Driscoll 1992). We might think of this as being what is 'normal' in the a pre-nuclear holocaust period.

LAT	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
0	12	14	14	12	11	11	12	13	15	13	12	12
5	11	13	13	13	12	12	12	13	14	12	11	11
10	11	12	12	13	12	12	13	14	13	12	11	9
15	8	11	11	12	12	12	13	13	12	11	8	7
20	7	10	10	12	13	13	13	12	11	10	7	6
25	5	7	9	10	11	12	12	11	10	8	5	5
30	4	6	8	10	10	12	11	10	10	6	5	3
35	2	4	6	8	9	10	10	9	8	5	3	2
40	2	3	5	8	8	10	9	9	7	4	2	1
45	1	2	4	6	7	9	8	7	5	2	1	1
50	1	1	3	5	6	8	8	6	4	2	1	0
55	0	1	2	4	5	7	6	4	3	1	0	0
60	0	1	1	3	4	6	5	4	2	1	0	0
65	0	0	1	2	3	5	4	2	1	0	0	0
70	0	0	1	1	3	4	3	2	1	0	0	0
75	0	0	0	1	2	3	2	1	0	0	0	0
80	0	0	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
85	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
90	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0

Outdoors, exposure to UV constantly changes during the day. People are largely unaware of the degree of these changes. At noon, when the sun is overhead, the level of UV at a wavelength of 300 nm is ten times greater than at either three hours before (9 am) or three hours after noon (3 pm). An untanned person with fair skin may receive a mild sunburn in as little as 25 minutes at noon (depending on the time of year and the latitude) but would have to lie in the sun for at least two hours to receive the same dose after 3 pm. The global biologically effective UV falling on a horizontal surface occurs primarily during the midday hours, about 50% during the four hours centred on noon-time zenith (Sliney, 1987). Increased levels of UV due to ozone layer depletion may have serious consequences for living organisms. A 10% reduction in ozone could lead to as much as a 15-20% increase in UV exposure depending on the biological process being considered.

As an extrapolation of this last statement might we then say that as a worst case - a 100% depletion of the Ozone layer would result in a 200% increase in the UV exposure and from the table above - the worst case would be 45 MEDS (in the 3 hours centered on noon) or 15 meds per hour - or that one could receive a sunburn from being outside just 4 minutes at that time even on a dark cloudy day. Mind you, that is the worst case extrapolation of the maximum ozone depletion combined with the most critical geographical location and the time of day for the most intense exposure. Nevertheless, starting with this most extreme case we can then work downward in developing our defenses. Those who do not like my methodology can propose their own. 

Variables affecting UV intensity


There are many variables that affect UV intensity.

The sun is the main source of UV. The broad spectrum and intensity of UV from the sun are due to the high temperature at its surface and its size. The intensity of solar UV reaching the earth's atmosphere would probably be lethal to most living organisms on the earth's surface without the shielding afforded by the atmosphere. Solar UV undergoes absorption and scattering as it passes through the earth's atmosphere with absorption by molecular oxygen and ozone being the most important processes. The ozone layer prevents almost all UV of wavelengths lamda < 290 nm and a substantial fraction (in excess of 90% of the total energy) from 290 - 315 nm from reaching the earth's surface. Thus the terrestrial environment is exposed to UV between 290 nm and 400 nm. The presence of cloud cover, air pollution, haze, or even scattered clouds, plays a significant role in attenuating UV. UVB and UVA irradiances are reduced due to scattering by water droplets and/or ice crystals in the clouds. Clouds can block a significant portion of the UV which would have otherwise reached the surface. Cloud cover and type are highly variable. The transmission of UV radiation through clouds depends on cloud height, type and optical density.
Ozone depletion effects
Over 90% of the total atmospheric ozone resides in the stratosphere (the upper atmosphere). The total ozone column is important for filtering solar UV. Only UVB is affected by changes in the ozone column.

There are many other variables such as:
deserts
grassy surfaces
water
snow
high altitudes all of which increase the intensity of the UV reflected. Snow, sand and water are all reflective surfaces and will intensify UV exposure to varying degrees. Grass reflects from 2.5 to 3 percent, sand reflects 20 to 30 percent, snow and ice 80 to 90 percent. Depending on the angle of reflection, water can reflect up to 100 percent of rays striking the surface.
Speculation as to how much UV may be presented or present is largely useless. What will be needed is a reliable method of measure. We shall examine both methods of measure and methods of defense in later sections, but first let us look at the effects of intensified UV. 

Medical Effects of Intensified UV

 
Excessive UV, even under 'normal' conditions, can cause serious serious physical problems. We can only speculate what it might do under the extreme conditions of Nuclear Winter.

Chronic skin changes due to UV consist of skin cancer (both melanoma and non-melanocytic), benign abnormalities of melanocytes (freckles, melanocytic naevi and solar or senile lentigines), and a range of other chronic injuries resulting from UV exposure to keratinocytes, blood vessels and fibrous tissue, often described as "photoaging" (solar elastosis). The worldwide incidence of malignant melanoma has continued to increase. The acute effects of UV on the eyes consist of the development of photokeratitis and photoconjunctivitis, which are unpleasant but usually reversible and easily prevented by appropriate eyewear. Chronic effects on the eye consist of the development of pterygium and squamous cell cancer of the conjunctiva and cataracts. There is evidence that ionizing radiation and UV may act synergistically in causing skin cancer.
DNA is the most critical target for damage by UVB and UVC radiations. Cell death, chromosome changes, mutation and morphological transformations are observed after UV exposure of procaryotic and eucaryotic cells. Many different genes and several viruses (including HIV) are activated by UV exposure.
Acute effects on the skin consist of solar erythema, "sunburn", which, if severe enough, may result in blistering and destruction of the surface of the skin with secondary infection and systemic effects, similar to those resulting from a first or second degree heat burn.
Ethnic background is an important determinant of risk of nonmelanocytic skin cancer in Caucasians who are the most sensitive to the adverse effects of UV and the ones least likely to tan well.. Blue eyes, fair or red hair, and pale complexion in people of European origin are well established risk factors for melanoma. Nonmelanocytic skin cancer is much less frequent in populations with dark skins than those with light skins (Fitzpatrick & Sober, 1985; Hoffman, 1987; Urbach, 1987).
The induction of immunosuppression by UVB has now been demonstrated in humans, not only those of light pigmentation, but also deeply pigmented individuals. This places all of the world's populations at risk of the potential adverse impacts of UVB on the immune system, including possible increases in the incidence or severity of infectious disease.
Both UVA and UVB have been shown to mutate DNA and cause skin cancers in animals (Staberg et al., 1983). UVA penetrates deeper into the skin than UVB and because of the energy distribution of sunlight and filtering by the outermost layers of the skin, melanocytes receive up to 70 photons of UVA for every photon of UVB.

Agricultural effects of Intensified UV

The production of phytoplankton has been estimated at about 6 x 1014 kg (UNEP, 1989). A loss of 10% would far exceed the gross national product of all countries in the world, assuming any reasonable price for biomass on the market. Field and laboratory experiments on plant responses to increased UVB radiation underscore the concern for agriculture, forestry and natural ecosystems as the stratospheric ozone level is depleted. Growth and photosynthesis of certain crop plants can be inhibited even under ambient levels of UVB radiation. Certain environmental factors, both biotic (e.g. plant diseases and competition with other plants) and abiotic (e.g. carbon dioxide, temperature, heavy metals, and water availability) can alter UVB effects in plants. This increases the difficulty in making any quantitative predictions. Plants in temperate regions and certain tropical species were found to be adversely affected by enhanced UVB radiation. Marine ecosystem which provides the primary food for human consumption (in some countries) has been shown to be more sensitive to UVB than terrestrial plants. One consequence of loss in phytoplankton is reduced biomass production which would be propagated throughout the whole food web. The marine phytoplankton is a major absorber of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Any reduction in this population would decrease the uptake of carbon dioxide and so augment the greenhouse effect.

Beneficial effects of UV

Some amounts of UV are beneficial in the same way that some amounts of arsenic are beneficial (in fact necessary).

For the entire system of vitamin D3 production the amount of UV radiation reaching the skin is critical. The doses needed are small, and daily exposures of the face and hands to sun and light for 15 minutes is considered sufficient. The minimum dose requirement was estimated to be equivalent to 55 MED per year (Health Council of the Netherlands, 1986). When too little UVB reaches the skin, deficiencies of vitamin D may occur, resulting in a weakening of the bones. Groups at risk are particularly dark-skinned children in high latitude cities and elderly people living entirely indoors. Supplementation of vitamin D3 in the diet is then recommended. It has (also) been suggested that beneficial effects of UV exposures may occur such as: improvement of cardiopathy and functions, and better microorganism defense.
One beneficial effect of modest exposure to UVB radiation is the maintenance of the ability of the skin (through sun tanning) to sustain further UV exposures. Loss of this adaptation forms an important component in photodermatosis, skin diseases where the lesions are caused by light. These patients can be treated by regular exposures to UVB. The doses required are in the same range as that needed for the synthesis of vitamin D3.

Instruments for measuring UV

The criteria that I have established for selecting proper instrumentation is as follows:

1. is not prohibitively expensive 
2. is not overly complicated and directed towards scientific uses
3. is not difficult to maintain and calibrate
4. is not too simplistic so that it will give us a meaningful scale
5. is not too limited in its scale so that it may not respond to the high ranges about which we are speculating as to occurring
6. is hardened so that will not be damaged by those high ranges
7. is not overly delicate so that we can use it in the hazardous situation that we anticipate
8. ideally the equipment would be either EMP hardened or not EMP sensitive, however there are other solutions for dealing with EMP.

I have found some possible equipment solutions and present them on a separate page.
   
Strategies for combating excessive UV

There come to mind several strategies for combating excessive UV.
 
Timing
First and foremost would be that of timing. Those individuals who have to work outside might try to do so in the twilight periods (before sunrise and after sunset) during the most serious circumstances. They should definitely avoid the midday hours if the situation is serious. The southern hemisphere custom of a midday siesta could certainly be considered everywhere.

Clothing

The most effective way to protect the skin from UV is to cover it. ...the areas of the body most at risk are the face (and eyes) and neck, the forearms and the backs of the hands. The face can be protected by a shield and this should also provide eye protection. The arms should be covered by clothing with a low UVB transmission; in general materials that are visibly opaque are suitable. Hands can be protected by wearing gloves.

A high protection factor is associated with a tightly woven (not knitted) material. UV is transmitted and scattered through the interstices of the material itself rather than penetrating the fabric. 

Brimmed Hats

If a brimmed hat is worn, the direct image of the sun on the retina is rare and overhead UV exposure is virtually eliminated. However, while using a hat the lid opens further and ground reflection of UV could become important. On an overcast day, the lids open wider, and although the UVB irradiance is reduced by cloud cover, the actual UVB dose rate to the eye from atmospheric scattering near the horizon may be reduced by a factor of only two (Sliney, 1983). Hence, on a cloudy day the eye may receive a greater UVB dose than on a bright sunny day. However, a heavy overcast may attenuate the UVB sufficiently, that this observation may not be true. As sunglasses are not typically worn on an overcast day, one could argue that the concern over sunglasses increasing total ocular exposure is unimportant. However, sunglasses should have sufficient UV filtration so that ocular exposure does not actually increase when they are worn on a sunny day. The presence of a brimmed hat reduced the face exposure by a factor of at least two and the eye exposure was reduced by a factor of 4 to 5 (Diffey et al., 1979, Roy et al 1988).

Sunglasses

Eye protection is extremely important. Long term effects in the way of eye cancer and blindness can be very detrimental.

For outdoor workers and the general public, the most hazardous source of UV exposure is the sun. Adequately designed (ski) goggles afford protection against exposure to solar UV at high altitudes and on snow, but for most other exposure conditions, good UV absorbing sunglasses (under normal conditions) are an adequate means of eye protection.

Dark sunglasses are NOT the answer. They can have the OPPOSITE effect that one might suppose. The reason is that if they are not special polarized UV protective their being dark will cause the pupil to open wider and the optic nerve will be exposed to MORE UV. Be WARNED about this.

If dark lenses are placed over the eyes, the natural aversion to bright light, which leads to the squint reflex (that greatly lowers retinal UV or exposure to the eye), would be disabled. This may appear to be an unusual way to consider the comfort that shaded lenses provide. However, poor sunglasses may actually lead to a higher UV exposure (Sliney, 1983). Face shields, goggles or safety spectacles which absorb UV should be worn where there is a potential eye hazard.

Squinting

People seldom look directly at the sun when it is overhead and very hazardous to view. It is not very hazardous to view when the sun is low in the sky and falls within the normal field-of-view. When the sun is more than 10° above the horizon, the natural tendency is to partially close the eyelids or squint (called squint reflex), thus shielding the retina from direct exposure. These factors reduce the exposure to the cornea to a maximum of about 5% of that falling upon the exposed top of head (Sliney, 1986). If the squint and other behavioural factors are not considered, the dose to the eyelid would be approximately 20% of the dose falling on a horizontal surface. When looking at snow, UV is reflected directly into the eye; hence, the traditional eye protector of the Inuit or Eskimo, the slit, in whalebone or in a seal-skin mask, provided geometrical rather than spectral protection against UV exposure (Hedblom, 1961). The lack of protection above and to the sides of sunglasses is a serious shortcoming. However, to obtain a quantitative idea of this component of exposure to the eye, measurements were made using a simulated ocular geometry in sunlight (Sliney, 1986). The human eye received 10 to 25 % of the UV dose when wearing glasses with lenses opaque to UV compared to no lens in the glasses. Therefore, unless goggles with side-shields are used, UV transmission factors in lenses much less than 2-5 % do not provide the eye protection suggested by the transmission factor (Sliney, 1986).

Nutrition

Nutrition can provide the body with essential antioxidants and these molecules are distributed throughout the body. At the cellular level, they enter a number of endogenous photoprotective systems to control photochemical processes (Roberts et al., 1991). Quenchers which can negate specific reactive intermediates may be important as a defence mechanism against UV insult to the eye. Glutathione, due to the low energy of the SH (thiol) bond (65 kcal) is an efficient free-radical scavenger and singlet oxygen quencher. Ascorbic acid quenches free radical and superoxide reactions. alpha-Tocopherol quenches both singlet oxygen and free radicals. There are also various antioxidant enzymes present in the eye. Exogenous scavengers and quenchers may be able to prevent UV damage by interrupting transient intermediates which cause ocular damage. An approach is to increase the known endogenous quenchers, (antioxidants) ascorbic acid, alpha-tocopherol and ß-carotene in the diet (Roberts et al., 1991).

Sun Screens

Surprisingly, while millions of dollars are spent marketing sunscreens and the pharmaceutical companies, medical associations, and weather bureaus all combine to promote them, the scientific studies themselves indicate that they are contra-indicated. That is to say - you should not use them. The reason is - UVB darkens the upper layers of the skin, and the creams and lotions enhance this darkening so that one does not as readily burn if they develop a tan (and some tanning is beneficial for that reason). HOWEVER, the tan does not prevent the UVA from penetrating through to the deeper cells where the DNA is affected and the detrimental causes of cancer occur. For this reason sunlamps and sun tanning are generally non-beneficial.

Here the protection factor is an estimate of the protection afforded against biologically effective solar radiation. A statistically significant positive association of "often or very often" use of sun protection agents with melanoma (relative risk 1.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5-3.8) was found by Beitner et al. (1990). In their cohort study of basal cell carcinoma in US nurses, Hunter et al. (1990) found a higher risk in those who spent 8+ hours per week outside and used sunscreen than in those who spent the same time outside but did not use sunscreen. Sunscreens effectively block solar UVB. UVB is the normal stimulus for accommodation of the skin such as thickening and increased pigmentation. Sunscreens suppress normal warnings of overexposure such as erythema and sunburn and allow excessive exposure to wavelengths of sunlight they do not block. Due to lack of these natural signs sunscreens create a false sense of security and individuals tend to stay in sun longer. In view of these behavioural changes which increases individuals UVA exposure it has been suggested that, because of the rising incidence of melanoma, UVA may be associated with its occurrence (Garland et al., 1992). While a recent study (Setlow et al., 1993) in fish reported melanoma induction by UVA, the role of UVA in the causation of human malignant melanoma has yet to be established.
While further studies are still needed to clarify concerns raised about the ingredients and protectiveness of sunscreens, broad spectrum sunscreens which absorb both UVA and UVB with an SPF of at least 15 are still recommended as an effective means of personal protection against UV exposure.

So - you can decide for yourself. 

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the descriptions of Nuclear Winter and the concomitant effects of intensive UV come from non-governmental sources which we might well also characterize as anti-survivalist. They hold out little hope, and give little encouragement for survival.

Those who would survive the prompt effects of a nuclear war would face a radically altered physical environment. A period of weeks to months of darkened days and subfreezing temperatures would stress the ecosystems, on which mankind ultimately depends, in ways unprecedented in recorded history.
Not only would the distribution of existing food stores be interrupted, but the growing of food would become impossible.
As the sooty smoke is slowly removed from the atmosphere and the sunshine begins to break through, it is likely that this light would be highly enriched in damaging ultraviolet radiation adding a further insult to the already injured biosphere.
There would always be great uncertainty about the safety of any food eaten, because it could be contaminated by chemical toxins, in addition to radioactivity.
With the lack of sophisticated analytical instruments, chemical contamination would be impossible to detect.

[The Medical Implications of Nuclear War,
Institute of Medicine.
1986
by the National Academy of Sciences.
National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
Possible Toxic Environments Following a Nuclear War
JOHN W. BIRKS, PH.D., and SHERRY L. STEPHENS
University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado]

As with dozens of other papers that I have provided on the subject of nuclear survival I do not doubt but that this one will also be subjected to ridicule. I find it strange that the government can take down the nuclear survival shelter signs, scrap the civil defense radiation detection equipment, ridicule the researchers and teachers of survivalist techniques - such as myself - and still spend billions upon billions in developing nuclear weapons and their means of delivery.
But that is the way that it is.