What Causes Crises?

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SAFE Ark Two Newsletter
June 28th, 2014

What Causes Crises?

Forest fires are often started by a match - but the real cause of the forest fire is usually the massive amount of dry fuel lying there waiting to be ignited. Still we often ask - "Who struck the match?"

In recent history, it is said that on January 4th, 2011 a young Tunisian fruit seller set in motion events that roiled the Arab world and changed the Middle East.

"Twenty-seven-year-old Mohammed Bouazizi from the town of Sidi Bouzid had been struggling to feed his family and found his only means of doing so, his fruit cart, confiscated by local authorities. Slapped in the face by an official, in despair and rage, Bouazizi set himself on fire outside the local magistrate’s office.

Self-immolations are not unheard of in that part of the world. But a new factor had entered the equation: cell phone technology and social media. Captured on cell phone video, his protest went viral, was seen around the world, and within weeks sparked the start of the Middle East uprisings that became known as the Arab Spring."

Mohammed Bouazizi had no idea that his action would literally set the Middle East aflame - nor was that in any way his intention. His desire was local and personal justice.

Rosa Parks, on December 1st, 1955 refused to give up her seat on a bus in Montgomery Alabama and from there developed a prairie fire that swept across the whole of the US and eventually culminated in the election of a black president.

Rosa Parks had no thought/intent or expectation to achieve such momentous outcome. Years later she still continued to remark that her feet were sore and she simply wanted to keep her seat on the bus.

Now, exactly a century ago today, on the 28th of June in 1914, Gavrilo Princip, a 19 year old Serbian youth fired a shot killing Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, an act said to be the cause of the beginning of World War One, a month later, on July 28th, 1914. Gavrilo Princip had no idea that his action would start a conflagration that would involve the whole of the world.

It is this latter that most interests me at the moment, because history seems to rhyme and the current events seem to closely mirror those of the yestercentury. We shall have to wait until history designates who or what will be the match for World War Three, but one individual who would like to be considered a candidate is the ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, "aka Abu Dua, born in Samarra in 1971, a Saddam "remnant" but - crucially - a former prisoner of the US government in Camp Bocca from 2005 to 2009, as well as a former leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq. It's no secret in the Levant that ISIS Men in Black were trained in 2012 by US instructors at a secret base in Safawi, in the northern desert of" Jordan, so they would later fight as Western-approved 'rebels' in Syria.

This is another curiosity, to me, that so many of the enemies of the US turn out to be those that the US itself has trained.

According to NBC Abu Dua said to his American captors, as they released him from their prisoner of war camp, "I'll see you guys in New York." I think not - but somewhere, someone, unbeknownst to us, and I am sure also to themselves, holds the match that will ignite WW3.

I think that for the next three weeks, or more, we may experience a relative hiatus in the acceleration of events. Some important event dates are scheduled towards the end of July, but nothing until then compared to the sudden dramatic events that have taken place in the last few weeks with the overthrow of the government in the Ukraine, the shipping out from Syria of the WMD, the combining of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority in Palestine, the splitting of Iraq by ISIS, the massive change of government in India, the Chinese/Vietnamese battles in Vietnam, the Japan/China clashes, the US/Iran rapprochement - Wow! so many bombshells in such a short period of time!

This is not to say that there won't be continuing headlines and skirmishes in the Ukraine, in Syria, and certainly with ISIS; atrocities in Africa, demonstrations in South America, particularly in connection with the World Cup, and all the other nonsense with the political parties and such in the US - but just nothing earth shaking for a little while now.

But eventually, something again that will really rock us, although at the moment I have no idea what. Our world simply is not stable. It is a tinder box - waiting for the match to be struck.



Things continue to improve at Ark Two. Sometimes slowly and sometimes a sudden breakthrough. Have been struggling for the last few weeks to put in the Water Ram. A massive task within itself, but then it wouldn't work and the effort to diagnose the problem has been intense. Evan, my grandson, came several times, and his father also. Many calls of consultation to the manufacturer and experiments performed to isolate the problem. Tom and Mark came from Toronto on Monday and spent hours on it. Tom (66) was the one to go over the cliff, which I thought quite heroic, because Mark (45) was hesitant about such a challenge. Then departing in the evening, Mark fell off our porch and had to be taken to Alliston Emergency to get a cast for a broken leg and ankle. I am glad that didn't happen over the cliff.

Special trip Wednesday to get Evan (and return him home later - a hundred miles each time) after another experiment, which didn't work out. More consultation with the manufacturer and Che drove up Friday to do another two hour experiment. We had lost Tom's and Mark's pipe over the cliff, but Che retrieved it and added air to to the air column bladder as the Ram Company suggested. Still no success. Evan to come again in the next day or two, to continue the effort.



So much to do that Christopher has suggested that we try to get an Intern. Not quite sure yet how to go about it, but I have written up the following proposal, and would appreciate immediate critique and any suggestions as to how we should go about publicizing it.

Summer and Fall Internship
(Room and board but no salary)
(Two positions)

Management of large Social Facility
Location: 90 miles NW of Toronto
Ontario, Canada

Intern Goals:
Gain management experience.
Define and manage substantial physical projects.

Choice of Projects:

1. Water Supply System:
Evaluate, modify and implement current emergency water system for 3,000 people, currently consisting of eight foot diameter interior dug well, dual in-well electric pumps, 500 gallon settling tank, 5000 gallon storage tank plus dual spring fed non-electric water rams with a 200 gallon and a 2000 gallon storage tank.

Systems need to be cleaned, purified, and tested operationally. Procedures need to be established for maintenance and health testing.

2. Electrical Supply System:
Two large diesels need to be upgraded. A current battery backup consisting of 36 forklift cells needs to be tested and evaluated. Inverter procedures need to be established. Eight windmill generators need to be evaluated and implementation procedures determined. A LED lighting system needs to be designed and implemented.

3. Sewage Disposal System:
Implement holding tank volume level measuring device and flushing procedures to Type IV commercial septic tank. Evaluate and test alternate procedures.

4. Cooking facilities:
Convert industrial natural gas range to propane. Convert 30 gallon floor standing steam soup pot to direct heat. Design, select and install additional cooking equipment.

5. Surveillance:
Complete installation of 8 surveillance cameras and eleven monitors. Install additional surveillance cameras. Establish surveillance and monitoring procedures.

6. Communication:
Install dual switchboard and local phone network. Install 2 two-way radio antennas and supporting equipment.

7. Miscellaneous systems:
Inspect and perform maintenance on conveyors and large industrial fans. Operate ozone systems for mold removal. Evaluate security system.

8. Farm:
Complete construction of bee hibernation facility. Relocate worm farm. Design and implement irrigation system. Establish procedures for plot isolation. Design and implement some landscaping. Improve fencing and design a goat facility.

9. Numerous Other Projects:
There are numerous other projects that one might choose from or propose.

10. A National Geographic program about the existing facility may be seen here

If interested - contact Bruce at (519) 925-6035



Some have suggested that money would solve many of our problems. I am not sure about that, but I do feel that a lot more personal participation would help. As always - let me say that we get more help than anyone I know of, and I am grateful for that, but the immensity of our tasks just always seems to demand more.

Still, we haven't ever done much in the way of fund raising. Some people have loaned us substantial sums, which I am way late in paying. We have made group purchases of some items and a number of people have fronted the costs of getting the books printed and so forth. There were numerous outright donations this week alone, such as for the water ram, and a replacement for one of the computer monitors that crashed (although we still need one more). And yet, we are often times pretty much hand to mouth, indeed mostly after the middle of each month. Still, not to complain. We are totally wealthy - compared to most of the world's population.

With all that - we have never even put a regular Paypal 'donate' button on our web site or in our newsletter. The sale of books usually raises less than fifty dollars per month and at this moment I am very much hoping that a couple of you who haven't ordered the TRIAD book for $10, will do so - because the account is a little over $10 short of having enough to pay this coming week's bill for the newsletter service.

Anyway, what has brought all this up is that this week I have been contacted by a donation management service - and have been wondering if I should do something like that. Doesn't really make sense to me, because like I say - what I think we really need is more personal participation. Still, I asked Christopher to look at it, and from his column below I think we have agreed - it is not the SAFE/Ark way.



Health continues to improve - but Jean certainly continues to get older. (Not me.) And Jemma too. Her problem came back and another $100 to the vet for another round of antibiotics. Vet put out with me that I didn't bring her back at the end of the last round - but the vet is financially wealthy, and we are not, so the vet doesn't understand. The vet demands that we bring Jemma back when these start to run out past the middle of the month (and the money does also) - so I don't know how that will work out.

We don't have socialized medicine for pets in Canada. Makes me certainly glad that we do for people - when someone breaks a leg.



Last week, Christopher mentioned a book that Matt, the Kansas State TEAM Leader had highly recommend - so I bit the bullet and purchased it for my desktop Kindle.

The following is my review: (Maybe I should try to put this on Amazon?)

Open Source Everything

Steele, Robert David (2012-06-05). The Open-Source Everything Manifesto: Transparency, Truth, and Trust (Manifesto Series) North Atlantic Books. Kindle Edition.

I attack this book with such apparent voraciousness - not because of the several and essential parts that I feel that it gets wrong - but rather because I feel that the author gets so much right - and that it is an important book.

For what the book gets right - I will let the reader refer to the book itself.

As to the points that, in my opinion, the book gets wrong:

1. Steele bemoans the loss of the Commons - without noting "The Tragedy of the Commons."

"The Tragedy of the Commons" was not when the peasants were shut out from the Commons but rather when they had access to it.

Each acted in their own self-interest and as a consequence the commons was overworked and depleted. There was no responsible stewardship. If everyone has ownership or responsibility - then actually no one has ownership or responsibility - and no one can be held responsible.

2. Steele's desired political system is that of Pure/Direct Democracy. On a large scale, other than for anarchy, there is no worse system than Pure/Direct Democracy because in a large scale system under pure democracy decisions are made purely from majority emotions - rather than from minority informed opinion. Only a few have the ability, dedication, commitment to study any issue. Not all can study every issue - even if they wanted to.

Indeed, Steele toys somewhat with the concept of Panarchy, "a conceptual term first coined by the Belgian philosopher, Paul Emile de Puydt in 1860, referring to a specific form of governance (-archy) that would encompass (pan-) all others", but in the end Steele advocates modifying the present political party system with a grassroots supported full and open discovery information network.

The third worse system, after anarchy and pure democracy, is that of political party democracy - because that leads to purchased self-interest.

Steele is correct that there does need to be full disclosure/complete transparency, but 'discussion contribution'/write/ needs to be limited to qualified participants - while 'discussion read' needs to be completely open. Decision making needs to be done by those who are qualified, but access to qualification also needs to be open. While he does eventually make reference to such a concept, I don't feel that he has adequately thought out how it might be implemented.

Every system has its shortcomings. Benevolent dictatorship or kingship - contains the seeds of failure in its continuity.

Attempts at hybrid systems such as republican democracy - or attempts to create a balance of power system - will always breakdown as one factor becomes out of balance, and the others are incapable of countervailing against it. Moreover - balance of power systems are very often ineffective - because various factions can prevent the other from acting - and consequently no cohesive project or plan of action may be performed.

For all these reasons Progressive Democracy offers the best solution, because it selects and promotes the most capable who then have the time and capacity to study the issues. It limits self interest while continually replenishing itself with new blood from the totality of the masses who it then truly represents.

The extreme of universal direct participation, as when Steele speaks of world-wide Twitter - would create such a fog and overwhelming tsunami of input - that the pearls of value would be completely concealed and lost in the ocean of input, if even a small percentage of the total inhabitants of the planet - were to contribute.

3. The book has a 'New Age' approach to religion - and does not recognize or incorporate the real sources of spirituality. It appears to fail to recognize, or at least emphasize, that this is the major shortcoming of humanity as a whole, although Steele brushes against the idea numerous times.

"This manifesto defines “God” as an experience of collective solidarity that extends from the human realm to the universe as a whole." (p. 55)

While the above definition might at first glance appear to be opposite of what I have been saying above - it actually has it backwards - and in that lies its total failure. God is not something that extends from the human realm - but rather the 'Something'/Source from which the human realm extends.

4. The concepts of Global Open Source Intelligence - and World Brain - are very important. The book is quite accurate in portraying the cumulative mass of human brains as being one of the most underutilized resources on the planet - and in recognizing the benefits of mass consultation.

"the greatest resource we have on Earth is the capacity of the human brain." (p. 71)

But the above statement is an erroneous common misconception in this decaying/dying/collapsing age. The greatest resource we have on Earth is the human spirit in its potential receptivity to the Holy Spirit in relationship to God or the Te in relationship to the Tao.

The Open Source / Total Transparency / Sharing / Global motivation attitude is one that is growing in every sphere of society. However, as with the previous technological revolution - this too will prove deficient - without an awakening of the MOST IMPORTANT resource on the plant - and that is the human spirit. It is this sphere of humanity that the book/author does not know how to address. The idea that it can be addressed in the political realm - by pure democracy - is totally inadequate - and would fail for many reasons. Nor is there any 'new age' 'noosphere'/'Panarchy' (all mentioned by the author) that can rescue humanity from this conundrum - although choice of the proper religious path will eventually cumulate in all those benefits and more.

5. Steele's bottom line is:

"The Open-Source Everything Manifesto is in large part a primal scream against lies and a plea for integrity as a common good." (p. 82)

He states: "I emphasize that a Smart Nation cannot exist without being part of a very transparent and truthful multinational network of information-sharing and sense-making that creates trust and enables true cost to be deeply and consistently understood." (p. 121) but in the end his only path to achieving that is, in my opinion, naught but wishful thinking.

I cannot state with certainty (except in my own mind) that I have a better solution or can predict a better destiny for the affairs of man, but I believe that there is a Divine Destiny in the affairs of man and that God has a Divine Plan towards which human society is working. There is much in what Steele says that is part of That Plan, or more often than not, clarifies what in present society is not part of The Plan. For this reason - I too highly recommend the book.

Peace and love,
Bruce
DawnSayer@webpal.org


US National
Coordinator's Corner

Christopher Verreos
coordinatorsafeusa@gmail.com

Christopher Verreos and his wife ReginaChristopher Verreos and his wife Regina
Greetings SAFE Team!

The funny thing about "The End of The World" part three, is that it can happen in a few days, or in a few decades! I've seen people leave this world for quite different reasons than what we are scared into believing. When your time is up, your time is up! In the meantime - live well! Help other people to help themselves. Or, in other words: BE the change you want to see!
Our SAFE Forum now has about 208 registered members. And we are nearing the 400,000 hit mark! A couple hundred people CAN'T be doing all that reading!

With all the people in Southern California, we still need a volunteer to step forward. Several states are still hanging out there WITHOUT leadership positions filled! If anyone visits the Forum, and sees that their state needs assistance, don't be shy - just send me an email, and I can fill you in on how simple it is to help out your state.

Regarding our membership, I hope most of you know by now that we are NOT in the prepper gimmick or prepper hustle for your $! That being said, we are also not in the "sky is falling" mode either. The problem is that so many folks need a crisis to function! Here, at SAFE, we're birds of another feather. We just don't have that fanatic, extremist, alarmist, fear stricken approach to lighting fires under folks.

Bruce, Carlton. and I have discussed this at length. We encourage our members to contribute to as many local community help organizations as is practical. Get the word out there, knowing that most are not even ready to hear it. As we continue building SAFE, and laying the foundation for that time when it will most likely be needed, we are counting on our member support base to help accomplish that goal.

With all the info that is popping up out there, the most needful thing remains king - don't be caught nappin, get your network a-crackin!

Peace & Action,
Christopher Verreos
National Coordinator, SAFE USA
coordinatorsafeusa@gmail.com

This is  
the old man and doggy picture.

Bruce Beach
161 Main St.
Horning's Mills
Melancthon
Ontario L9V 1X7
Canada
TRIAD book  
cover
This is a link to the book
everyone needs now -
and which we hope they will buy
and support our cause.
This is a link to the book
everyone will need the day
AFTER the Great Catastrophe -
but which they need to buy
and read NOW!.
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